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When do the bounds on a Poisson's median almost equal the mean?

Question 1

When do the bounds on the median $\nu$ of a Poisson distribution equal (or nearly equal) the mean of the distribution, $\frac{1}{\lambda}$?

The bounds of the median are given as

\[\lambda - \ln 2 \leq \nu < \lambda + \frac{1}{3}\]

Lower Bound

Let \(\lambda - \ln 2 = \frac{1}{\lambda}\) then we can obtain the polynomial

\(\lambda^2 - \lambda \ln 2 - 1 = 0\) for which we can then use the quadratic equation to obtain

\[\lambda = \frac{\ln2 \pm \sqrt{\left( \ln 2 \right)^2 +4}}{2}.\]

We obtain two approximate solutions for lambda:

\[\lambda_- \approx -0.7117804400329233\] \[\lambda_+ \approx 1.4049276205928687\]

However, since we already know that $\lambda > 0$ we can exclude $\lambda_-$ and take $\lambda_+$ as the unique solution.

Upper Bound

Let

\[\frac{1}{\lambda} = \lambda + \frac{1}{3}\]

then we can arrange to see this is a quadratic polynomial

\(\lambda^2 + \frac{\lambda}{3} - 1 = 0\) and apply the quadratic formula:

\[\lambda = \frac{-\frac{1}{3} \pm \sqrt{\left( \frac{1}{3} \right)^2 + 4}}{2}\]

This gives two candidate solutions:

\[\lambda_- \approx -1.18046042171637\] \[\lambda_+ \approx 0.8471270883830365\]

Like with the lower bound, we can only take the upper bound to be $\lambda_+$. But unlike the lower bound, we can only say that the median is strictly less than $\lambda_+$ even if it is really really close.

Question 2

Assuming $\lambda$ is known, how wide a range of values can the median take?

\[\lambda + \frac{1}{3} - \lambda + \ln 2 = \frac{1}{3} + \ln 2\]

Interestingly, no matter what value $\lambda$ takes there is a constant-width interval for the values of the median.

This post is licensed under CC BY 4.0 by the author.

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